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Ukraine’s key role in the global food system

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ukraine produces about 10 percent of global wheat exports and 14 percent of corn exports, in addition to about half of all sunflower oil and a substantial amount of barley and fertilizers. Due to the Russian invasion, much of these supplies are now trapped in both countries, driving up food and livestock feed prices globally and threatening the normal workings of our food systems.

This GLF Live, originally aired live in March 2022, brought in leading food expert and GAIN Health executive director Lawrence Haddad to share his expectations and predictions for how the unfolding war will affect global food supplies, nutrition, and security in the short and long term.

Dr. Lawrence Haddad has served as executive director of the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN) since October 2016. Prior, he was the founding co-chair and lead author of the Global Nutrition Report and director of the Institute of Development Studies (IDS), the world’s leading development studies institute.

The foreseen impacts of the war in Ukraine on food and agriculture

Food prices were already on the rise before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since 2020, we’ve witnessed global supply chain problems connected to COVID, the spike in the price of inputs like fertilizer connected to rising energy prices, among other effects. Dr. Haddad elaborates and shares his expectations on how war will affect the global food supply:

• Short and long-term impacts are hard to predict. Aside from gas prices, up-to-date information such as food price fluctuations, and market and agriculture data are hard to track. FAO projections point to an increase in food prices and hunger globally.
• The global food supply system is threatened. “When export countries (like Ukraine) stop exporting, everyone suffers including the export country – you got to keep the food moving internally and across borders,” says Dr. Haddad.
• Countries in the Global South such as Pakistan rely up to 50% on exports of wheat from Ukraine. On the other hand, African countries rely heavily on fertilizer exports from the same country, putting a strain on their capacity for food production in the region.
• Ukraine produces and exports a lot more than cereals. Dr. Haddad’s key message is on diversifying production. “We’re dependent geographically on four or five “bread baskets,” there should be 20. They might not be the most efficient way but it the most resilient.”
• It’s time for resilience. Actions towards diversification, circularity, and zero food waste, can help build the resilience of food systems. Agroforestry has been adopted as a strategy to address resilient food systems.

Learn more about How agroecology can feed the world

Listen to more GLF Live podcasts

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Esta sessão apresentará lições preliminares aprendidas de iniciativas de conservação e desenvolvimento com inclusão de gênero na Amazônia brasileira, colombiana e peruana. Com base em exemplos práticos de uma ampla gama de esforços de base para melhorar a participação de mulheres Indígenas, Afrodescendentes e camponesas na gestão de recursos naturais, os palestrantes consolidarão seus aprendizados em um conjunto amplamente aplicável de melhores práticas para tomadores de decisão e implementadores. Um evento altamente inclusivo, a sessão encorajará ativamente e integrará o feedback de todos os envolvidos.

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The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed flaws in our global food system, demonstrating how vulnerable it is to unexpected shocks. While there is an emphasis on the production of food staples, including wheat, maize and rice, to meet basic food security needs, in many regions there is a lack of nutrient-rich foods, leading to malnutrition. Amy Ickowitz, team leader of the Sustainable Landscapes and Livelihood Program at the Center for International Forestry Research Amy Ickowitz and Anja Gassner, Senior Livelihoods Specialist and Head of Research Methods Group at World Agroforestry discuss the challenges surrounding our food system, the solutions offered by nature and the much needed support from researchers and policymakers in the development of a more sustainable food system that can feed billions of people around the globe.

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In our very first episode that coincides with International Women’s Day, we highlight the lives of the world’s invisible heroes: women farmers who feed the world. Our guests Houria Djoudi, CIFOR Senior Scientist, Sustainable Landscape and Livelihood team, and Ana Maria Paez-Valencia, ICRAF Scientist on Gender Unit, share their insights on the roles of women in forest communities and the inspiration for their research with women around the world.

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Title of presentation:

How to feed a hotter world

About the presentation:

In December 2015, world leaders meet in Paris with a goal to limit CO2 emissions to keep global temperatures within 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Even if they succeed in this goal, a warming planet will challenge food production at a time when burgeoning population requires unprecedented amounts of food, water and energy. By 2030, we will need 50% more food and energy and 30% more fresh water. How will we feed in a hotter world?

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The thematic session identified the technical, social and institutional conditions for developing successful long-term initiatives and how they can be sustained at regional and national levels. The findings and discussion will be used to further develop an emerging focus on land degradation of WLE and CIAT – and others that join. They will also feed into a high-level dialogue of African leaders attending the COP.

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The United Nations’ Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will convene for its final meeting from 3-7 February 2014 in New York. The 30-member working group will focus on the role of biodiversity, forests and oceans in human development. CIFOR scientist Daju Pradnja Resosudarmo will make a presentation on forests in the next development framework. Following this meeting, the group will develop a report that will be handed to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in September.

At a glance:

• Countries are designing Sustainable Development Goals to replace the Millennium Development Goals in 2015
• These goals, encompassing multiple sectors, will guide global development toward the achievement of tangible goals such as reducing poverty, increasing health and well-being, etc.
• Forests, agriculture and other landscape uses will be crucial components for achieving many of the potential goals, including reducing poverty, increasing health and well-being, and addressing climate change.
• See the dual SDG and climate change framework processes at a glance here.

What are Sustainable Development Goals?

• In 2015, the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) that currently make up the global development framework will come to an end. The MDGs made measurable progress in reducing levels of poverty and hunger while increasing access to primary education and maternal care, among others.
• A UN Task Team report, prepared in the lead-up to the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (also known as “Rio+20”), praises the impressive progress made toward achieving the MDGs — but highlights shortcomings and remaining challenges:
  • Getting environment out of its corner: In the MDG framework, the environment was addressed under a single goal — MDG 7. A new framework can allocate a central role to environmental factors, treating them as a basis for all development outcomes.
  • Working toward universal goals: The MDGs focused on outcomes that should be achieved within developing countries, such as fighting poverty and hunger. In this framework, the role of developed countries was limited to providing development aid and technical assistance. For the new goals, many are calling for responsibilities applicable to developed countries, including more responsible production and consumption.
  • Building real partnerships for development: The MDGs emphasized actions within developing countries and the traditional aid framework. Partnerships among key actors like the private sector and transnational civil society, as well as other innovative forms of collaboration, were rarely realized.
  • Deeper goals for greater impact: Many goals focused on quantity rather than quality of outputs: food security was measured through access to food, not nutrition; education through enrollment, not success rates. New goals enable a more detailed look at development achievements.
  • Focusing on quality of development: The MDGs provided no guidelines regarding the type of development that is desirable. Stakeholders are now arguing for goals that put sustainability and equity first.
  • Sustainable Development Goals as a new global development agenda were first proposed by the governments of Colombia, Peru, Guatemala and the United Arab Emirates ahead of the Rio+20 Conference in 2012.

Who will select the final set of goals and when?

• The Open Working Group (OWG) on Sustainable Development Goals is a 30-member group, reporting to the UN General Assembly (UNGA).
  • For the first time, countries could make use of a new regulation that allows them to share memberships. Many like-minded regional countries — such as France/Germany/Switzerland or China/Indonesia/Kazakhstan — are sharing seats. In total, 70 countries are represented in the Open Working Group.
  • Since March 2013, the Open Working Group came together for seven meetings, discussing a wide range of issues: sustainable agriculture, population growth, climate change and equality, to name a few.
  • The UN is also collecting global views through other processes:
    • A High-level Panel led by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and UK Prime Minister David Cameron submitted recommendations to Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in May 2013 — among them a call for a transformational shift to put sustainable development at the core of all future interventions.
    • National and thematic consultations are taking place in more than 60 countries, reaching out to a wide group of stakeholders from academia, civil society, the private sector, government and youth organizations.
    • A Sustainable Development Solutions Network under the leadership of Jeffrey Sachs is bringing together universities and research institutions for scientific advice.
  • In September 2014, the UN General Assembly will start discussing the SDG framework based on the recommendations made by various bodies.
  • A High-level Political Forum on sustainable development, comprising heads of states, will make the final decision in September 2015.
  • Technical and scientific advisory organizations will work out the details in parallel to decision-making processes.

What roles do forests, agriculture and other land-use sectors play?

• Forests, agriculture and other land uses are crucial for the achievement of a wide range of SDGs currently considered: poverty eradication, employment, food security, nutrition and safe drinking water:
  • Forests protect watersheds that provide 75% of the planet’s drinking water.
  • Forests store twice as much carbon as the atmosphere.
  • Agricultural production needs to be increased sustainably in order to feed a human population of 9 billion by 2050.
  • Sustainably managed landscapes also contribute indirectly to a number of proposed aspirations like gender equity, good governance and collaborative development partnerships.
  • Still, land uses cause around 30% of emissions worldwide as agriculture is the biggest driver of deforestation (80% of forests cleared are turned into agricultural lands).

How did we get here?

• The United Nations Forum on Forests discussed Sustainable Development Goals during its May 2013 meeting.
  • Ireland (for the EU) strongly supports including forests in the SDGs
  • Indonesia called for “cross-cutting SDG that includes poverty eradication, sustainable growth and equity, and forests” (instead of specific stand-alone forest goal)
  • Ghana and China also urged for a cross-cutting approach to forests and development, with a focus on poverty eradication
  • Past meetings of the UN Open Working Group, for example those discussing agriculture and climate change, have identified the following priorities in relation to land use changes:
    • Raising smallholder productivity and rural income on a sustainable basis needs to be achieved to end hunger and poverty
    • Agricultural value chains in developing countries and food waste in developed countries need to be addressed
    • Combination of traditional farmers knowledge and latest scientific findings to inform sustainable agriculture
    • Role and commitments of UNFCCC should be respected and inform climate change thinking in SDGs
    • Common but differentiated responsibilities: countries acknowledged the principle that both developed and developing countries should take action against climate change, but stressed that the principle “evolves over time”
    • Climate change challenge should be reflected through several related targets, among them: protecting forests, food security, water management and promoting low-carbon, climate-resilient development paths
  • Held alongside the UNFCCC COP19 in Warsaw, the first Global Landscapes Forum — attended by 1,200 people, among them 180 climate change negotiators — drafted recommendations for SDGs.
  • Global Landscapes Forum participants identified two mutually reinforcing options for addressing land uses in the SDG framework:
    • Treating landscapes as a cross-cutting issue, contributing to a variety of possible goals
    • Designing a stand-alone goal on sustainable landscapes

The success of this sustainable landscapes goal could be measured using a set of tangible indicators and targets, including improved livelihoods, food security, ecosystem services, biodiversity and resource efficiency.

A high-level session of the Global Landscapes Forum in Warsaw discussed the role of landscapes in future development and climate agendas. The panel included Finland’s Environment Minister Ville Niinisto, Rwanda’s Minister of Agriculture Agnes Kalibata, Danone’s Chief Sustainability Advisor Bernard Giraud and World Resources Institute President Andrew Steer. The session was moderated by CIFOR’s Director General Peter Holmgren.

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1. Importance, Key Questions on Resilience and Managing Disasters in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (ICIMOD)

The Hindu Kush Himalayas support global irrigation (water for 1.3 billion), provide food and energy (3 billion people benefit) and are home to 4 out of 34 biodiversity hotspots. But climate change and unsustainable management increase the risk of disasters and resource scarcity. ICIMOD explore green economy alternatives:

2. Sustainable Landscapes – Food Security and adapting to climate change (IFAD)

This presentation takes a close look at a specific landscapes function – providing food security to a growing world population. Smallholder farmers play a critical role in this process as 80% of food is estimated to come from their lands. Climate change affects farmers negatively across multiple dimensions and several measures are needed to strengthen their resilience.

3. Knowledge Sharing for Impact (CIFOR)

Traditional communication models are not working anymore. At the same time, 2.3 billion internet users present the unique opportunity to leverage online and social media tools. This presentation showcases the Global Landscapes Forum’s communication strategy – a mix of traditional and new media outreach.

4. Brazilian Forests – Back to Landscapes? (The Nature Conservancy)

This presentation explores how new laws and policies in Brazil impact forested landscapes. It takes a detailed look at land use in the Amazon region and assesses how governance tools can lead to positive change.

5. Urban Agriculture: Structure, functions, future challenges (Warsaw University of Life Sciences)

More than half of the world’s population now lives in cities. Growing demand from urban areas and changing consumption patterns affect rural regions and urbanization is considered a driver of deforestation. At the same time, 20% of the world’s food is already produced in cities. Urban agriculture provides an opportunity to feed more people while holding environmental impacts in check.

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